Southern Caucasian States and the anti-missile shield crisis

Abstract

The American anti-missile shield crisis has led Southern Caucasia (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) to new turmoil. Do Southern Caucasian States, who are aware of their strong exposition to danger in the absence of a regional security system, have valid reasons to worry about the American project and Russia’s counter-proposition to use the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan jointly with the US ? The backdrop of the opening of a tensions cycle of an unprecedented genre between Russia and the United States is the control of the Black Sea and it accesses. Southern Caucasia, as a new separating line, is subjected to excessive instrumentalizing by these powers. Among the three Southern Caucasian states, Azerbaijan is the State that comes out reinforced from this verbal fight, since in the event of a Russian-American agreement. Bakou would host the talks between Washington and Moscow. Yet, this Azeri leadership might disrupt the regional military balance and speed up the armament race between the three States, in the absence of a compromise on suspended conflicts and of a regional agreement to echo outer threats, all the more since the Russian project of suspending the enforcement of the CFE Treaty.

AFRI 2008 Summary