From ‘constructive chaos’ to ‘growing entropy’. Perspectives for 2008 in the Middle-East

Abstract

The year 2008 can be forecast as marking a transition and waiting phase in the Middle-East. This part of the globe has entered a cycle of deep crises, resulting in « growing entropy ». The latter is translated into three phenomena, that is to say the United States’ incapacity to win the war or impose peace, the fragmenting polarisation of the social and political sphere, and the emergence and assertion of Iran as a regional power that cannot be ignored by the international community. But this situation of entropy reinforces durably new conflicting situations: indeed, the arc of crisis that stretches from the depths of Iran to the Mediterranean shores of Lebanon, including Iraq, Syria and Palestinian lands, seems made to last and indicates the generalised decay of crises.

AFRI 2008 Summary